Optima bank Research Department – Greek Market Watch: Optima bank, OPAP-Allwyn, Cenergy Holdings, NBG, Eurobank, Bank of Cyprus, METLEN, Aegean Airlines, NOVAL Property, Ellaktor/Prodea

ATHEX headed sharply south yesterday, underperforming the European stock markets. In more detail, the General Index tumbled by 3.36% to 2,200.98 units (FTSE Large Cap: -3.51%, FTSE Mid Cap: -2.98%, Banks Index: -5.01%) and the traded value was shaped at €385.8m, down from Friday’s €707.5m. We expect the risk-off sentiment to persist today. 

Today’s Headlines

·         Optima bank 4Q25 results | Strong performance continues, 2025 profit reaches €170m (+21% y-o-y), with 2026 Outlook above €195m and RoTE at 24% 

·         OPAP 4Q25 results: Soft quarter with slight increase in GGR, EBITDA below our estimate, driven primarily by higher headcount, increased payroll expenses, and elevated marketing expenses. Distribution of EUR 0.80 DPS to be paid in Q2 2026

·         OPAP Holding – Completion of subsidiary share contribution

·         OPAP-Allwyn Financial Calendar update

·         CENERGY Holdings 4Q25e Preview: Another Strong Quarter, points to another historic High Profitability for 2025e on the upper bound of company guidance; we expect a €0.20 DPS

·         NBG launches targeted VES

·         Eurobank share buyback

·         Bank of Cyprus Investor Day today

·         Aluminium Bahrain BSC reached an agreement to buy Aluminium Dunkerque Industries France

·         Aegean Airlines Financial Calendar

·         NOVAL Property 2025 Results Review

·         ELLAKTOR acquires a property from Prodea 

Company Headlines

Optima bank || Restricted | CP: €9.19 | TP: Restricted 

Strong performance continues, 2025 profit reaches €170m (+21% y-o-y), with 2026 Outlook above €195m and RoTE at 24% 

2025 results: Net profit hit a new record of 170.0m in 2025 (+21% y-o-y) and best-in class RoTE at 25.3%, the highest in the Greek banking system and among the highest in Europe. Net interest income reached €210.0m (+11% y-o-y), despite interest rates normalization and fee income came in strong at €61.8m (+49% y-o-y). Core income came in at €271.8m (+18% y-o-y) and non-core revenues reached €25.8m (+9% y-o-y). Total revenues stood at €297.6m (+17% y-o-y). On the cost side, OpEx stood at €66.5m (+15% y-o-y) and Loan provisions at €24.5m (+19% y-o-y).

Source: Optima bank

4Q25 results: Net profit came in at €46.7m (+10% q-o-q, +46% y-o-y) in 4Q25.  Net interest income reached €56.6m (+8% q-o-q, +16% y-o-y) and fee income came in at €21.6m (+46% q-o-q, +79% y-o-y). Core income came in at €78.2m (+17% q-o-q, +28% y-o-y) and non-core revenues reached €6.7m (+22% q-o-q, +14% y-o-y). Total revenues stood at €84.8m (+17% q-o-q, +27% y-o-y) and OpEx at €17.6m (+6% q-o-q, +6% y-o-y). Pre-provision income landed at €67.2m (+20% q-o-q, +34% y-o-y) in 4Q25 and loan provisions stood at €9.4m (+114% q-o-q, -4% y-o-y)

Source: Optima bank

Balance sheet: Gross loans reached €5.1bn (+40% y-o-y), deposits at €6.3bn (+36% y-o-y) and assets at €7.6bn (+36% y-o-y). Tangible equity reached €736m (+20% y-o-y).

Asset quality: Group NPEs reached €67m, translating to a best-in-class NPE ratio of 1.31% vs 0.85% in FY2024.

Capital: CET1 FL and CAD ratios came in at 12.19% and 14.87% respectively.

2025 Guidance: Management guided net profit to exceed 195m (>15% y-o-y), implying RoTE at 24%. Management also targets loans growth to reach €6.2bn in 2026 (+1.1bn y-o-y) and deposits to accelerate to €7.7bn (+1.4bn y-o-y). Cost of risk is guided to land at 55bs and Cost to Core Income lower than 30%.

Conference call: Management will host a conference call today at 11:00 Athens/9:00 London Time (Tel. numbers: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 94 60 800, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). 

OPAP || U/R | CP: €15.180 | TP: U/R

4Q25 results: Soft quarter with slight increase in GGR, EBITDA below our estimate, driven primarily by higher headcount, increased payroll expenses, and elevated marketing expenses. Distribution of EUR 0.80 DPS to be paid in Q2 2026

Facts: OPAP released weak 4Q25 results, below our EBITDA estimates. Revenues came in at €652.0m (slightly below Optima, -0.9% YoY), EBITDA dropped to €212.0m (5.9% below our call, -13.5% YoY) and net profits reached €122.2m (-16.2% YoY, -8.2% below our call). For FY25, OPAP reached revenues of €2.4bn, recording a y-o-y increase of 4.9%, with online casino recording a y-o-y sales increase of 16.9% and VLTs following with 6.0% y-o-y increase.

• Turning to profitability EBITDA of the group exceeded managements guidance (€800.0m) and reached €824.6m, down by 0.9% y-o-y, while net profit dropped by -0.5% y-o-y to €483.4m. OPAP declared distribution at €0.80/share post completion of the business combination transaction (ex-date before 19 June). The company will hold a conference call tomorrow at 16:00 Athens time (14:00 UK time).

OPAP-Allwyn 4Q/FY25 Key P&L Results

Source: Optima bank, the Company 

Analysis: Turning to segmental performance, FY 25 results were driven primarily by growth in Online Casino and VLTs, followed to a lesser extent by Lottery (supported by Kino performance), while increase in Betting and Instant & Passives were softer during the year. In 4Q25 higher payouts and online bonuses pressured performance of Betting, whereas in Lottery, results were flatter due to a limited number of consecutive jackpots. Online Casino was the main driver of the 4Q25 performance with 16.9% growth y-o-y, followed by a steady increase in VLTs 6.0% stemming from terminal upgrades. OPAP generated free cash flows of €181.9m in 4Q25 compared to FCF of €203.3m in 4Q24. Consequently, Net Debt / LTM EBITDA at 0.20x (0.24x incl. leases).

Comment: Overall, OPAP delivered weak set of 4Q25 results due to higher payroll and marketing expenses, although this was partially offset by the strong performance of VLTS and the continued outperformance of Online Casino. Consequently, the company managed to exceed latest management’s EBITDA guidance of €800m. In terms of shareholder returns, management has confirmed a €0.80 distribution to be paid following the completion of the merger with Allwyn. Going forward, we are looking for clearer guidance on the combined entity and its strategic priorities. That said, we are setting OPAP under review. 

OPAP Holding – Completion of subsidiary share contribution

OPAP Holding S.A. announced that on February 27, 2026, it completed the contribution of its participations in the share capital of its subsidiaries to a newly established company, Allwyn Hellas Investment S.A. 

OPAP-Allwyn Financial Calendar update

Allwyn International’s FY25 results on March 19. The AGM date will be set after the company’s relocation to Luxembourg. No additional FY25 dividend will be proposed beyond the €0.50 already paid. The merged entity is expected to distribute €0.80 per share after relocation, subject to Board approval. A revised financial calendar, including AGM and dividend dates, will be published once the relocation is completed. 

CENERGY Holdings || U/R | CP €21.40 | TP U/R

4Q25e Preview: Another Strong Quarter, points to another historic High Profitability for 2025e on the upper bound of company guidance; we expect a €0.20 DPS

4Q25e Results Preview | Cenergy Holdings is set to announce its 4Q/FY25e Results tomorrow amc, with a conference call scheduled for the following day. We expect another strong quarter with the EBITDA and Bottom-line profitability recording a new historic high for 2025e, driven by the acceleration of backlog execution on improved margins.

• In more detail, we see group sales up by 5.7% y-o-y at €567.0m, driven by increased volumes in both segments, EBITDA adj. (i.e., excluding metal impact and one-offs) at €90.9m, up by 16.0% y-o-y, while accounting for €11m Depreciation, financial expenses of €12m and 22% effective tax rate, we expect Net profits to shape at €53.1m, up by 35.7% y-o-y.

In 2025e terms, we see Group revenue at €2,113.5m, up by 17.6%, EBITDA adj. at €351.7m, up by 29.2% y-o-y and Net Profits €200.8m, up by 44.0% y-o-y. Finally, with respect to dividends, we expect CENERGY to declare a €0.20 DPS (up by 42.8% y-o-y). The management will hold a conference call tomorrow at 15.00 local time.

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