Today’s Headlines
· Total building activity increased in February
· Eurobank Holdings to launch mandatory tender offer for Hellenic in June-Press
· MOH 1Q24 results review | Another strong quarter as expected, strong start for another solid year
· OPAP 1Q24e preview: Strong Top line but increased OpEx weighs on profitability; Soft short term outlook
· CENERGY Holdings 1Q24e Preview: Strong Start, in a seasonal weak quarter on track to meet the EUR 240-250m EBITDA target
· Cenergy approves EUR 0.08/share dividend and share buyback programme
· Government to launch FTTH voucher in September
· EPSILON NET 1Q24 results
· Viohalco AGM approves EUR 0.12/share dividend
· Noval Property IPO public offer period commences today
· Intralot AGM tomorrow
· Intracom Holdings to acquire insurance company-Press
· Sunrise Mezz plc received coupon payments of EUR 1.2m
· Phoenix Vega Mezz plc
Macro Headlines
Total building activity increased in February
According to ELSTAT, total building activity (private-public), as this is measured by the number of building permits issued, increased by 77.8% y-o-y in February 2024. In surface and volume terms, building activity increased by 70.2% and by 72.0% y-o-y respectively. In the March 2023- February 2024 period, Greek building activity grew by 12.8% y-o-y in terms of permits, while also increased by 17.7% y-o-y in terms of surface and by 20.5% y-o-y in terms of volume.
Company Headlines
Eurobank Holdings to launch mandatory tender offer for Hellenic in June-Press
Press reports (newmoney) indicate that Eurobank Holdings will launch a mandatory tender offer for the remaining 44.7% stake in Hellenic Bank in June. Recall that the Commission for the Protection of Competition of the Republic of Cyprus approved on 05 February 2024 the concentration arising from the increase of Eurobank’s stake in Hellenic Bank. Following the approval of the Commission, the acquisition of a total stake of 26.1% of Hellenic Bank shares, is now subject to the approvals of the Central Bank of Cyprus/European Central Bank and the Superintendent of Insurance of Cyprus. Eurobank aims to consolidate Hellenic from 3Q24.
MOH || BUY | CP: 28.08 | TP: EUR 36.70
1Q24 results review | Another strong quarter as expected, strong start for another solid year
Facts: Motor Oil reported 1Q24 “adjusted” EBITDA of EUR 334m (-25% YoY on tough comparables, -1% vs. consensus, -3% vs. our estimate) and “adjusted” net profits of EUR 175m. Recording inventory gains of EUR 20m compared to EUR 50m losses in 1Q23, the company reported IFRS EBITDA of EUR 354m compared to EUR 397m in 1Q23 and IFRS net profit of EUR 191m compared to net profit of EUR 237m in 1Q23. Finally, in respect to dividends, it is reminded that the company has already declared a final DPS of EUR 1.40 for FY23e (ex-date: 26/6, DY: 5.1%), raising total distributions for FY23 to EUR 1.80/share. Management will hold a conference call today at 17:30 local time (Greek participants: +30 211 180 2000, UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, USA: +1 516 447 5632).
1Q24 P&L Results
|
EUR m |
1Q23 |
1Q24 |
Y-o-Y change |
Optima Bank |
Actual vs. Optima |
Consensus |
Actual vs. Consensus |
|
IFRS EBITDA |
397 |
354 |
-11% |
370 |
-4% |
351 |
1% |
|
“Adjusted” EBITDA* |
447 |
334 |
-25% |
345 |
-3% |
338 |
-1% |
|
Refining “Adjusted EBITDA” |
384 |
263 |
-32% |
270 |
-3% |
||
|
Marketing & others Adjusted EBITDA” |
16 |
22 |
38% |
18 |
22% |
||
|
– Power & Gas EBITDA |
53 |
49 |
-8% |
60 |
-18% |
||
|
IFRS Net Income |
237 |
191 |
-19% |
222 |
-14% |
205 |
-7% |
|
“Adjusted” Net Income* |
276 |
175 |
-37% |
199 |
-12% |
193 |
-9% |
Source: Optima bank research, MOH *Adjusted figures exclude inventory impact
Parent (mainly refining): Operating performance in 1Q24 was once again marked by the favorable refining environment, hence MOH’s “clean” refining margin in 1Q24 shaped at USD 15.3/bbl, compared to USD 14.7/bbl in 4Q23 and USD 21.1/bbl in 1Q23, outperforming benchmark by USD 4.0/bbl (vs. outperformance of USD 7.1/bbl in 1Q23). Refining sales volume were weaker, down by 6.8% YoY to 3.0m tons, while trading sales volume were strong, up by 22.5% y-o-y to 0.27m tons, resulting in total sales of 3.27m tons, exhibiting a 4.9% y-o-y drop. Breaking down 1Q24 sales to geographic markets, export sales contracted by 13.7% y-o-y to 2.2m tons, while on the contrary domestic sales were up by 23.2% y-o-y to 779k tons and bunkering/aviation demand continued to recover, up by 19.7% y-o-y to 243k tons. All in, “adjusted” EBITDA from the refinery operations stood at EUR 263m from EUR 384m in 1Q23. Finally, the refining division recorded EUR 20m inventory gain (from EUR 40m inventory loss last year).
Marketing: Marketing performance was stronger during the quarter, with increased Jet fuel, Gasoline and Diesel demand (total domestic up by 4.3% y-o-y) which more than offset the weaker heating oil demand. That said, marketing contributed EUR 22m to group “adjusted” EBITDA, 12% of which from the international network vs. EUR 16m in 1Q23.
Power & Gas & other: Power & Gas EBITDA in 1Q24 dropped to EUR 49m (from EUR 53m a year ago), driven by the weaker contribution from NRG, which more than offset the increased RES output, on increased installed capacity of 839MW (from 772MW in 1Q23.
Below the EBITDA line: Accounting for increased depreciation of EUR 62m (vs. EUR 59m a year ago), higher net financials of EUR 46m (EUR 30m of which derivative losses), vs. expenses of EUR 26m last year and EUR 2m contribution from associates in 1Q24 (from EUR -6m in 1Q23), IFRS and Adjusted Net profits shaped at EUR 191m and EUR 175m respectively. FCF in 1Q24 turned negative to EUR 441m (from inflows of EUR 234m in 1Q22) due to increased income taxes of EUR 179m, adverse WC movement of EUR 430m and investing outflows of EUR 125m towards the ANEMOS acquisition. Consequently, Group net debt in 1Q24 (including leasing) rose by EUR 448m y-t-d to EUR 1.97bn.
Conclusion: 1Q24 was once again once again an extraordinarily strong quarter for MOH, with similar to the trends recorded in 2023, mainly driven by the persistently favorable refining environment during the trailing 24 months. It is noted that this strong trend in the refining environment has to large extent normalized so far in 2Q24e, remaining however at healthy levels, well above the mid cycle average. That said, and taking also into account that MOH currently trades in our numbers at an attractive 3.5x EV/EBITDA and 5.0x P/E for 2024e, we reiterate our ‘Buy’ recommendation.
OPAP || CP: EUR 14.78 | Rating: Buy | TP: EUR 19.30
1Q24e preview: Strong Top line but increased OpEx weighs on profitability; Soft short term outlook
Strong 1Q24e performance | OPAP will release its 1Q24e results on Wednesday 29 May, after market close, while it will hold a cc the following day (16:00 Athens time). We expect a strong quarter in terms of top line with revenue growth across almost all commercial channels except for a slight decline in the Instant & Passives category (which we expect to continue underperforming), but high OpEx continues to trim profitability. 1Q24e was characterised by a) the rich sports calendar, b) the launch of Eurojackpot, c) the continued strong growth of Online casino with players increasing their engagement levels and d) the better performance of Lottery games in physical stores supported by the restructuring of lotto and Joker games.
1Q24e P&L forecasts | In this context, we forecast quarterly revenues (GGR) of EUR 550.6m (vs. EUR 527.4m in 1Q23 +4.4% y-o-y), EBITDA of EUR 185.3m (vs. EUR 196.3m in 1Q23 -5.6% y-o-y) and “comparable” net profits of EUR 109.3m vs. comp. net profit of EUR 117.8m in 1Q23 (-7.2% y-o-y). On the OpEx side, variable costs (GGR contribution, agents’ fees and direct costs) are seen shaping at EUR 324.4m, accounting for 59% (-30bps y-o-y) of total GGR, while fixed costs (personnel, marketing, other) are estimated to sharply increase at EUR 108.5m (+22.1% y-o-y); accounting for 19.7% of total GGR vs. 16.9% in 1Q23. The increase in OpEx derived from the inflationary pressures that the company has been facing in the recent quarters (expected to normalize on a y-o-y basis after 3Q24e) and the sharp increase from marketing expenses to further support the Euro jackpot lunch. Consequently, group’s EBITDA margin is estimated to fall at 33.7% (-360bps y-o-y). We note that we have assumed an income of EUR 58m, resulting from the new 10-year lottery/betting license, as well as other operating income/costs (net) from non-gaming operations of EUR 9.7m (almost unchanged vs. last year) in the quarter.
|
EUR m |
1Q23 |
1Q24e |
y-o-y |
|
Betting (Retail+Stoiximan+Online OPAP) |
168.9 |
172.1 |
1.9% |
|
Lottery (Retail + Online Lottery) |
188.7 |
197.6 |
4.7% |
|
Instant & Passives |
30.5 |
28.8 |
-5.5% |
|
VLTs |
84.4 |
86.3 |
2.2% |
|
Online casino (Online OPAP + Stoiximan) |
54.9 |
65.8 |
19.8% |
|
Revenues (GGR) |
527.4 |
550.6 |
4.4% |
|
GGR tax & levies |
-164.0 |
-173.4 |
5.8% |
|
Net gaming revenue |
363.5 |
377.1 |
3.8% |
|
Agents fees |
-102.2 |
-106.0 |
3.7% |
|
Other operating income |
26.2 |
26.8 |
2.0% |
|
Other income related to the new lottery/betting concession |
57.9 |
58.0 |
0.2% |
|
Other operating costs |
-16.8 |
-17.1 |
1.5% |
|
Direct costs |
-43.2 |
-45.0 |
4.2% |
|
Opex |
-88.9 |
-108.5 |
22.1% |
|
Impairment of financial assets |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
-100.0% |
|
EBITDA |
196.3 |
185.3 |
-5.6% |
|
% of GGR |
37.2% |
33.7% |
-360bps |
|
Depreciation |
-32.2 |
-33.0 |
2.4% |
|
EBIT |
164.0 |
152.3 |
-7.2% |
|
Net financial expense |
-3.1 |
-3.1 |
0.0% |
|
EBT |
161.0 |
149.2 |
-7.1% |
|
Income tax |
-40.5 |
-37.3 |
-8.0% |
|
EAT |
120.4 |
111.9 |
-7.2% |
|
Minorities |
-2.7 |
-2.6 |
-2.5% |
|
EAT ex-minorities |
117.8 |
109.3 |
-7.2% |
CENERGY Holdings || U/R | CP EUR 8.46 | TP U/R
1Q24e Preview: Strong Start, in a seasonal weak quarter on track to meet the EUR 240-250m EBITDA target
Cenergy Holdings is set to announce its 1Q24e Results today amc, with a conference call scheduled for tomorrow at 15.00 local time (Tel nos: Greek participants: +30 213 009 6000, UK participants: +44 (0) 800 368 1063, UK & International: +44 (0) 203 059 5872, USA participants: +1 516 447 5632). We expect a strong quarter, despite the usual weak seasonality in the start of the year, driven by the acceleration of backlog execution on healthy margins. In more detail, we see group sales up by 7.0% y-o-y at EUR 408m, driven by increased volumes in both segments (the Cables segment already operates at high utilization rates while the pipes segment is expected to have further stepped-up its operations), aided by the huge accumulated backlog (Group backlog EUR 3.15bn on 31/12/2023, up by EUR 1.15bn y-o-y). Turning to profitability, we see EBITDA adj. (i.e. excluding metal impact and one-offs) at EUR 59.1m, up by 34.4% y-o-y, while accounting for EUR 8m Depreciation, higher financial expenses of EUR 18.5m (driven by the recent interest rate hikes which more than offset the lower by EUR 60m y-o-y net debt as of 31/12/2023) and 22% effective tax rate, we expect Net profits to shape at EUR 25.5m, up by 65.3% y-o-y. Finally, it is reminded that CENERGY has already declared a EUR 0.08/share dividend (DY: 0.9%, ex-date: 25/06/2024).
1Q24e Group Key P&L Forecasts
|
EUR m |
1Q23 |
1Q24e |
Y-o-Y change |
|
Turnover |
381.3 |
408.0 |
7.0% |
|
EBITDA adj. |
44.0 |
59.1 |
34.4% |
|
mgn |
11.5% |
14.5% |
295 |
|
Net Profit |
15.4 |
25.5 |
65.3% |
Source: the Company, Optima bank research
Cenergy approves EUR 0.08/share dividend and share buyback programme
During yesterday’s AGM and EGM, Cenergy approved the distribution of a EUR 0.08/share dividend (DY: 0.9%, ex-date: 25/06/2024) and the launch of a share buyback programme.
Government to launch FTTH voucher in September
The Μinister of digital governance stated that the government will launch the new Gigabit Connectivity Voucher Scheme (FTTH) with a total value of EUR 80.0m in September. The news is positive on OTE as it will boost demand for FTTH.
EPSILON NET 1Q24 results
Revenues came in at EUR 27.7m (+33% y-o-y) and EBT at EUR 7.9m (+43% y-o-y). 1Q24 results have been burdened by EUR 300k from the fair value measurement of stock options under IFRS 2 from EUR 900k in 1Q23. Net cash position increased by EUR 3.6m y-t-d to EUR 10.5m and equity stood at EUR 67.3m.
Viohalco AGM approves EUR 0.12/share dividend
Viohalco Group, during yesterday’s AGM, approved the distribution of a EUR 0.12/share dividend (ex-date: 25/6, DY: 1.9%).
Noval Property IPO public offer period commences today
The public offer period for the IPO of Noval Property commences today, and will end on 31 May. As a reminder, Noval Property, a Viohalco Group subsidiary, proceeds with an IPO of EUR 43.5m IPO, aiming to fund an ambitious investment programme of EUR 340m in 2024-30e. The offering price range is set at EUR 2.60-2.82/share, implying a 34.7%-29.1% discount compared to NAV of EUR 3.98/share, offering an attractive entrance point to a balanced REIC/development company, also when taking into account that domestic listed peers currently trade at an average discount of 16.7% or 26.7% excluding Prodea. Finally, the commencement of all Noval Property shares is expected on 5th of June.
Intralot AGM tomorrow
The AGM of the company will be held tomorrow at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London Time.
Intracom Holdings to acquire insurance company-Press
Reportedly (euro2day), Intracom Holdings will acquire an insurance company but no more details were available. The AGM of the company is taking place today at 12:00 Athens/10:00 London Time.
Sunrise Mezz plc received coupon payments of EUR 1.2m
The company announced that as of May 2024, it has received coupon payments corresponding to the preceding 3-month interest period, amounting to a total of EUR 1.2m.
Phoenix Vega Mezz plc
The company announced that as of May 2024, it has received coupon payments corresponding to the preceding 3-month interest period, amounting to a total of EUR 2.3m.
Calendar of Events
Macros
30/05/24 | Unemployment Rate APR, Producer Price Index in Industry APR & Economic Sentiment Indicator MAY
31/05/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade MAR
31/05/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review
03/06/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI MAY
07/06/24 | 1Q:24 GDP (provisional data)
1Q24 Results Release
29/05/24 | OPAP (Aft-mkt), Cenergy Holdings, KRI-KRI (Aft-mkt)
31/05/24 | Austriacard Holdings
12/06/24 | LAMDA Development (Aft-mkt)
28/06/24 | Attica Bank
EGM / AGM
29/05/24 | Intracom (AGM), Thrace Plastics (AGM), Karelias (AGM)
30/05/24 | Intralot (AGM)
31/05/24 | Ellaktor (AGM), Profile (AGM), Premia Properties (AGM), Quality & Reliability (EGM)
03/06/24 | Euroconsultants (AGM), Orilina Properties (EGM)
04/06/24 | Mytilineos (AGM)
06/06/24 | Ideal Holdings (AGM), Cairo Mezz Plc (AGM)
07/06/24 | Kekrops (AGM)
10/06/24 | Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (AGM)
11/06/24 | Prodea Investments (AGM), Performance (AGM)
12/06/24 | AVAX (AGM)
13/06/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM), Quest Holdings (AGM), DIMAND (AGM)
14/06/24 | Trade Estates (AGM), Intercontinental International REIC (AGM), Interlife (AGM)
17/06/24 | Loulis Food (AGM)
19/06/24 | Motor Oil (AGM), Biokarpet (AGM), Iktinos (AGM)
20/06/24 | Terna Energy (AGM), AS Company (AGM), Elton (AGM), Mevaco (AGM)
21/06/24 | Fourlis (AGM), Flexopack (AGM)
25/06/24 | GEK TERNA (AGM)
27/06/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), PPC (AGM), LAMDA Development (AGM), Elastron (AGM), Space Hellas (AGM)
28/06/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), OTE (AGM), Epsilon Net (AGM), EKTER (AGM), Frigoglass (AGM)
02/07/24 | Intrakat (AGM), KRI-KRI (AGM)
03/07/24 | ADMIE Holding (AGM)
04/07/24 | Piraeus Port (AGM), Alumil (AGM), Elinoil (AGM)
05/07/24 | ILYDA (AGM), Sunrise Mezz PLC (AGM), Phoenix Vega Mezz PLC (AGM)
09/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings (AGM), Lavipharm (AGM)
10/07/24 | Attica Bank (AGM)
11/07/24 | EYDAP (AGM)
19/07/24 | Quality & Reliability (AGM)
23/07/24 | Eurobank Holdings (AGM)
25/07/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (AGM)
30/08/24 | Ble Kedros (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
30/05/24 | Coca Cola HBC (EUR 0.93)
03/06/24 | Thrace Plastics (rem. EUR 0.17), Karelias
04/06/24 | Profile Software
06/06/24 | Premia Properties
12/06/24 | BriQ Properties (EUR 0.1045)
14/06/24 | Prodea Investments (rem. EUR 0.137)
19/06/24 | Trade Estates
25/06/24 | Optima bank (EUR 0.44), Titan Cement (EUR 0.85), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.24), ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.04), Viohalco (EUR 0.12), Cenergy (EUR 0.08), Quest Holdings (EUR 0.22), Intracom (EUR 0.12), Intercontinental International
26/06/24 | Motor Oil (rem. EUR 1.40), Mytilineos (EUR 1.50), Fourlis (EUR 0.12)
01/07/24 | Loulis Food
02/07/24 | Flexopack
04/07/24 | OTE (EUR 0.71)
05/07/24 | Trastor REIC (EUR 0.02)
08/07/24 | EKTER
10/07/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (rem. EUR 0.60), Jumbo (EUR 1.00), AS Company
16/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Epsilon Net
18/07/24 | ILYDA (EUR 0.02)
22/07/24 | PPC (EUR 0.25), EYDAP (EUR 0.10), Space Hellas
29/07/24 | Piraeus Port (EUR 1.34), AVAX (EUR 0.03)
22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)
02/09/24 | ADMIE Holding
11/09/24 | Ble Kedros
Ex-Capital Return
25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25)
02/07/24 | Intracom Holdings
25/07/24 | Ideal Holdings (EUR 0.20)
28/08/24 | GEK TERNA
Initial Public Offering (IPO) – Noval Property
29/05/24-31/05/24 | IPO period
05/06/24 | Commencement of trading of shares on the Regulated Market of the ATHEX
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