Wednesday November 12, 2025 – Market Monitor – Market Comment – In the Spotlight – Buybacks (Beta Sec)

 

Positive cues from Wall Street’s rally may provide incentives for fresh buying interest in today’s session while results and reviews will be in the spotlight.

 **********

AthEx closed with slim gains on Tuesday extending Monday’s rally but without that much steam in the buyers’ engine. Banks did not contribute in the day’s growth, but other blue chips recorded notable gains which eventually offered the benchmark a second successive northbound session. Cherry-picking is the name of the game as rotation continues with investors assessing fresh information from Q3 results.

General index closed at 2,024.44 points, adding 0.44% to Monday’s 2,015.51 points. The large-cap FTSE-25 index expanded 0.42%, ending at 5,107.89 points. The banks index contracted 0.07%, as Optima gave up 2.35%, Alpha fell 1.01% and Piraeus parted with 0.38%, while Eurobank earned 0.63%, Bank of Cyprus climbed 0.50% and National obtained 0.39%. ElvalHalcor jumped 4.27% and Titan Cement rose 3.69%. In total 65 stocks secured gains, 41 endured losses and 18 remained unchanged. Turnover amounted to 196.2 million euros, down from Monday’s €252.7m.

Greece/Inflation:  In October 2025, Greece’s national consumer price index rose to 2%, slightly up from 1.9% in September, according to the ELSTAT. On a monthly basis, inflation increased by 0.1%. Over the 12-month period from November 2024 to October 2025, inflation averaged 2.5%, down from 2.9% in the previous year. These figures reflect a modest upward trend in inflation, though still within a relatively stable range.

Alpha Trust: October NAV strands at €9.61, while the market price at €7.28, reflecting a discount of 24.26%.

Quality & Reliability: The strategic acquisition of Systecom (cybersecurity), SquareDev (AI), and Alexander Moore (SAP applications) was funded entirely by a €19.1mn bond, these acquisitions aim to expand QnR’s technological capabilities, market reach, and client base. The deals include earn-out clauses and options for future equity increases, with no regulatory approvals required. The companies will remain operationally independent, and the transactions are expected to enhance QnR’s innovation, cross-selling potential, and financial performance over the medium term.

Intralot: Robeson Mandela Reeves was appointed as the new CEO

Performance Technologies: The company announced it has earned two new Microsoft Advanced Specializations: Build AI Applications and Analytics on Microsoft Azure, bringing its total to ten. These recognitions affirm the company’s commitment to technological excellence and innovation within the Microsoft Cloud ecosystem. The specializations enhance Performance’s strategic role in helping organizations leverage AI, data, and cloud technologies to accelerate digital transformation. Microsoft acknowledged the company’s deep technical expertise and its ability to modernize applications and integrate AI-driven solutions across Greece and Cyprus.

Motor-Oil: The company finalized the transaction involving the sale of 13,134 shares (60% of the share capital) of Automotive Solutions S.A. from NRG Supply and Trading S.A. to IREON Investments Ltd., both subsidiaries of Motor Oil, for €6.3mn.

Austriacard Holdings: 9M:25 results out on November 13 before market opening.

Conference call details:

§   Greece: +30 213 009 6000 or +30 210 946 0800

§   Austria: +43 720 816 079

§   UK: +44 (0) 800 368 1063

§   USA: +1 516 447 5632

PPC: The company announced the modernization of its power stations in Rhodes, Crete, and Chios with six new flexible gas turbine units totaling over 220MW. Five of these units are already operational in Rhodes and Crete, enhancing energy sufficiency during the summer. A sixth unit in Chios is expected to commence commercial operation by year-end. Additionally, two 29MW units are being installed in Lesvos for trial operation in early 2026, following similar upgrades in Santorini in December 2024. These dual-fuel, low-emission turbines aim to reduce environmental impact and noise, while ensuring energy security and compliance with EU and Greek environmental regulations.

Metlen: On November 7th, CEO and major shareholder Mr. E. Mytineos bought 10k shares at €42.1525/share.

Lamda Development: E-Book opens today and will last until November 14, for the bond issued by Lamda Development. The issue amounts to up to 500 million euros, with a yield range set between 3.8% and 4.1%.

Aegean Air (9M/Q3:25 review): AEGEAN delivered a satisfactory set broadly in line posting growth in both traffic and revenue during the third quarter and the nine-month period of 2025, supported by resilient air‐travel demand and higher capacity. For the nine months, revenue increased by 3.9% to €1.43bn, with passengers up 5% to 13.2 million. Profitability also improved, with EBITDA up 8.1% to €356.6m and net profit rising 12.1% to €148.0m. This strong performance was achieved despite the additional regulatory burden from reduced free CO₂ emission allowances and the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel, which had a total cost impact of €32m. Lower fuel prices helped offset part of this regulatory pressure, while operational performance remained solid across both domestic and international networks.

In the Q3:25, revenue grew 2.2% to €647.1m and EBITDA increased 10% to €200.4m, reflecting higher passenger volumes and slightly improved load factors. The airline carried 5.6 million passengers in the quarter, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic traffic growing 7% and international traffic rising 5%. Despite growth in operating profitability, net profit for the quarter declined by 8.2%, mainly due to FX affecting the valuation of future aircraft lease liabilities, rather than underlying business performance.

Operational efficiency continued to improve, supported by the gradual introduction of larger and more fuel-efficient A321neo aircraft. However, the company is still managing significant operational limitations from mandatory Pratt & Whitney GTF engine inspections, which have temporarily grounded 12 aircraft. This situation is expected to gradually improve from late 2026, but will remain a constraint in the near term. Even with these challenges, liquidity strengthened, with cash and other financial assets reaching €1.04bn at the end of September 2025, while net debt declined, improving (€589m vs. €662m end 2024) the company’s leverage profile.

Net cash excluding leasing obligations at €378.5mn vs €385.5mn in FY:24; Net Debt / EBITDA (trailing) at 1.4x.;OpCF at €297.6mn. CAPEX €84.8mn. FCF at €212.8mn. €312.3mn cash generated during the period, 87.5% of EBITDA.

So far in 2025, AEGEAN strengthened its fleet with six (6) new aircraft deliveries, five (5) Airbus A320/321neo and one (1) ATR 72-600. Two of these aircraft, one A321neo and one ATR 72-600, were fully financed through the company’s available cash reserves.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, AEGEAN plans to increase available seat capacity by 9%, expanding frequencies and adding new international destinations, particularly in the Middle East. Demand trends remain supportive, and the airline continues to benefit from strong passenger sentiment and brand positioning. Key factors to monitor going forward include currency volatility, the pace of recovery in aircraft availability, and the rising structural cost of environmental compliance.

Aegean trades 8.5x its FY:25 earnings and 4.3x EV/EBITDA with expected dividend yield of 7.1%.

The following table summarise results vs. consensus estimates:

AEGEAN	2024	2025	Y-o-Y	2025 Est.	Act. vs	2024	2025	Y-o-Y	2025 Est.	Act. vs
EUR m.	9M	9M	(%)	9M	Est.	Q3	Q3	(%)	Q3	Est.
Sales	1,379.9	1,434.1	3.9%	1,429.8	0.3%	616.9	630.3	2.2%	626.0	0.7%
EBITDA	329.9	356.6	8.1%	353.7	0.8%	182.3	200.4	9.9%	197.4	1.5%
EBITDA Mrg	23.9%	24.9%	+96 bps	24.7%	+13 bps	29.6%	31.8%	+224 bps	31.5%	+25 bps
Net Income	132.0	148.0	12.1%	145.80	1.5%	109.1	100.1	-8.2%	97.9	2.2%
Net Mrg	9.6%	10.3%	+75 bps	10.2%	+12 bps	17.7%	15.9%	-180 bps	15.6%	+24 bps

TITAN (Investors Day): The group has introduced its new strategic growth plan, “TITAN Forward 2029,” during its Investor Day held in Athens. Having met its prior financial targets one year earlier than expected, the Group now plans to deploy over €3 billion in growth investments, supported by strong operating free cash flow and a robust balance sheet. Main points of financial targets for 2025–2029 are:

§   The company aims for annual sales growth of 6–8%, targeting approximately €4 billion in revenue by 2029, with alternative cementitious materials contributing around 10% of sales.

§   EBITDA is expected to grow 11–13% annually, reaching about €1 billion, accompanied by an EBITDA margin improvement of 250–300 basis points.

§   Earnings per share are projected to rise to €5–€6, while Return on Capital Employed is targeted at 15–17%, supported by disciplined capital allocation and a leverage range of 1.5x to 2.0x net debt to EBITDA.

§   TITAN also plans to return approximately €500 million to shareholders over the period, reflecting confidence in cash generation and long-term earnings.

In the event following the announcement Titan management said that is aiming to invest for CapEx and acquisitions, an amount of 3 to 4 billion euros over the next five years, as the group’s management believes that trends in Europe — and especially in the United States — are particularly favorable for business expansion. Titan will deploy €0.5bn to scale Alternative Cementitious Materials targeting 10% of Group revenue (c€400mn) by 2029. Approximately €400m will be invested in product and technology innovation, including €100m in low-clinker R&D and startup partnerships. With regards to M&As the group plans to invest c€1bn over 2025-2029 toward bolt-on and strategic acquisitions. The Group is primarily seeking small- to mid-sized regional players offering geographic adjacency, operational synergies or access to new product technologies (ACM, precast). Management also pointed the discount of Titan’s valuation vs. peers implying a significant upside (>x2) vs. current levels.

Overall an impressive plan with supportive organic and inorganic actions across the board. Taking into account the current trading multiple and applying management mid-term estimates Titan trades at c50% discount. We like the story as it combines growth, returns, dividend and we believe that gradually shares will close the gap reflecting a more reasonable valuation.

 

Bank of Cyprus: (Q3/9M:25 review): Bank of Cyprus announced a solid set of results for the nine-month of 2025. NII was lower this quarter at €180mn (vs €182mn in Q2) on the back of the latest interest rate cut and management has upgraded its target for the year to >c.720mn from the previous of 700mn. Also, hedging actions reduced NII sensitivity to c.€18mn per 25bps of interest rate movement. Fee income continues to be strong at 45mn and a positive one-off on other income boosted the total income to 258mn (+1.6% q-o-q). Operating expenses were slightly elevated by 2% and C/I ratio low at 35%. Net profit for the quarter stable at 118mn. Sustainable high-teens ROTE as the full year target (assumption of 2% rate environment); currently at 18.4%; basic EPS of €0.81. Cost of risk low at 33bps. The bank is sitting on plenty of excess capital with a strong CET1 ratio of 20.5% and TCR of 25.4%. TBVPS 2.55eur for Sep’25. New lending of €2.2bn in 9M2025, up 31% y-o-y, driven mainly by international and corporate demand; €635mn new loans issued in Q3’25 – 2025 loan growth target of c.4% to be exceeded mainly supported by international lending. The Ethnikini Insurance Cyprus acquisition completed in July 2025 and has added 700k to net insurance results in August-September 2025. The focus of the bank is on long term shareholder value creation with generous payouts on a sustainable basis, so no plan of inorganic growth (M&A activity) was mentioned for the upcoming future. As such, the 2025 distributed target reaffirmed at top-level guidance of 70% (€0.68 cash div/share paid in 2025 and 30mn buyback completed in June 2025).

The table below summarizes results vs. our estimates:

BoC									Overview
(In Million Euro)	3Q24	9M24	2Q25	3Q25	9M25	3Q25E	9M25E	% Difference	QoQ	YoY
NII	204	624	182	180	548	178.4	546.1	0.9%	-1.1%	-11.6%
Fee income	44	131	47	45	136	45.0	136.2	0.0%	-4.9%	1.2%
Trading	28	66	8	8	39	15.0	45.6	-46.7%	-3.6%	-71.9%
Other Income	2	8	16	25	44	9.0	28.1	177.8%	53.4%	982.3%
Total income	279	828	254	258	767	247.4	756.1	4.3%	1.6%	-7.5%
Operating costs	-106	-292	-102	-104	-301	-97.0	-294.3	7.2%	-2.0%	1.6%
Pre-provision-profits	173	536	152	154	465	150.4	461.8	2.4%	1.4%	-11.1%
Core PPI	142	463	127	121	383	126.4	388.0	-4.3%	-4.9%	-15.0%
Provisions	-7	-22	-8	-9	-27	-8.0	-26.1	12.5%	-12.5%	-34.9%
Other results	-11	-39	-4	-6	-22	-4.0	-19.5	50.0%	-50.0%	44.9%
PBT	156	475	140	139	417	138.4	416.1	0.4%	-0.6%	-10.7%
Corporate taxes	25	73	22	20	62	22.1	64.3	-9.5%	-9.1%	-19.3%
Net profit (continued)	131	402	118	119	355	116	351.8	2.4%	0.9%	-9.0%
Discontinued operations	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	–	–	–
Net profit	131	402	118	119	355	116.2	351.8	2.4%	0.9%	-9.0%
Minorities	-1	-2	-1	1	0	-0.5	-1.7	-300.0%	300.0%	284.5%
Attributable net profit	131	404	118	118	355	116.7	353.5	1.1%	-0.3%	-10.2%

Below the complete table of the revised 2025 targets:

Revised FY:25 Targets
ROTE (reported)	high-teens
ROTE on 15% CET1 ratio	>20%
Distribution (payout)	70%
NII	>c.€720mn
C/I	<40%
CoR	<40bps
Organic Capital Generation	upside to c.300bps

 

Optima Bank (Q3/9M:25 review): Optima Bank reported strong nine-month results this morning, with performance broadly in line with consensus expectations. NII up by 0.9% q-o-q exhibiting stabilization, while Fee Income rose sharply—up 10.2% q-o-q and 44.8% y-o-y—highlighting the bank’s effective strategic execution. Management exhibited strong confidence that fee income will continue to grow with the same pace as they are continuing to grow their investment banking capabilities and the market conditions remain favorable. Operating expenses increased by 14% y-o-y and 3% q-o-q and C/I stands at a surprising 23%. Cost of risk at 50bps. Net profits reached €123.4mn, marking a 14% y-o-y gain with a robust RoTE of 25.3%. The balance sheet showed continued momentum, with loans growing to €4.4bn (+€1.1bn or +34% y-o-y) and deposits climbing to €5.6bn (€1.5bn or +37% y-o-y). Assets under management also exhibit strong growth reaching €5.1bn (+29% y-o-y). Asset quality remains solid, with an NPE ratio of 1.43% and NPLs at just 0.53%.

The bank trades at 7.1x its FY:25 PE, 2.5x its TBV and has an expected dividend yield of 8%.

 

The table below summarizes the consensus estimates vs actuals:

 

Optima Bank									Overview
(In Million Euro)	3Q24	9M24	2Q25	3Q25	9M25	3Q25E	9M25E	% Difference	QoQ	YoY
NII	49.6	141.1	51.7	52.2	153.4	52.9	154.1	-1.2%	0.9%	5.2%
Fee income	10.1	29.3	13.3	14.7	40.2	14.5	40.0	1.4%	10.2%	44.8%
Core PPI	45.2	129.2	49.0	55.8	144.8	56.8	151.2	-1.7%	13.8%	23.4%
Net profit	39.2	108.2	42.1	42.3	123.4	42.5	123.5	-0.4%	0.5%	8.0%

 

The bank remains on track to meets its annual targets, specifically:

 

FY:25 Targets		Target Coverage
Loan growth	€1bn	76%
Deposit growth	€1.25bn	80%
Net Profit	>€160mn	77%
RoTE	>22%	100%
NPE ratio	<1.5%	100%
Cost to core income	<30%	100%