Market Comment
ATHEX headed south yesterday after six positive consecutive sessions, in line with the European markets. In more detail, the General Index slipped by 0.93% at 1,435.19 units, (FTSE Large Cap: -0.95%, FTSE Mid Cap: -0.98%, Banks Index: -1.16%) and the traded value was shaped at EUR 142.3m, down from Wednesday’s EUR 174.9m. We expect ATHEX to move in line with the European markets today, with the IT sector and OPAP in the spotlight.
Today’s Headlines
· Bank of Greece Financial Stability Review
· Mytilineos 1Q24 Trading Update | Strong quarter despite weak seasonality; results broadly in line with our estimates; Mytilineos targets to become the first Greek representative in the London FTSE 100index
· OPAP AGM approved dividend of EUR 0.60 per share
· HELLENiQ ENERGY establishes green electricity supply in Cyprus (press)
· PPC, DEPA and Kopelouzos to complete the new 840MW CCGT plant in Alexandroupoli in 24 months (press)
· Athens Water–solid FY23 results, to distribute dividend of 0.10/share with an implied yield of 1.7%
· Athens Water conference call highlights
· EPSILON NET Ginger Digital BidCo to submit mandatory tender offer
· CENERGY AGM on 31st May
· AVAX FY23 Results out on 29 April amc
· Viohalco AGM set for 28 May
· Galaxy Cosmos 2023 results out today
· Ilyda Financial Calendar
Sector Headlines
Bank of Greece Financial Stability Review
According to the April Financial Stability Review, Greek banks improved their fundamentals in 2023, enhancing their profitability (EUR 3.8bn vs. EUR 3.4bn in 2022), capital adequacy (CET1 ratio at 15.5% vs. 14.5% in 2022), liquidity and asset quality (NPL ratio at 6.6% vs. 8.7% in 2022) and thus are in a better position than in the past to withstand potential shocks. However, persistently high inflation, higher key ECB interest rates and slower economic growth are testing the resilience of firms and households and could lead to the emergence of new NPLs. Finally, the biggest challenge is associated with the international environment and a further rise in geopolitical risks.
Company Headlines
Mytilineos || BUY | CP: EUR 37.72 | TP: EUR 49.00
1Q24 Trading Update | Strong quarter despite weak seasonality; results broadly in line with our estimates; Mytilineos targets to become the first Greek representative in the London FTSE 100index
Mytilineos released yesterday its 1Q24 results, with group turnover at EUR 1.143m (-16%% YoY on normalized energy prices, +3% vs. Optima), EBITDA of EUR 252m (+12% YoY, in line with Optima and consensus) and Net income of EUR 158m (+10% YoY, 5% above Optima). Regarding Leverage, Net Debt at March 2024-end stood at EUR 2.2bn, implying a Net Debt/EBITDA of 2.1x (1.6x adjusting for non-recourse debt).
Comment: Mytilineos reported a solid set of results, in a seasonally weak quarter (Renewables activity is back-loaded during each financial year) and despite the adverse pricing environment in the energy and Aluminium markets, which has hit the profitability of its international peers, demonstrating the resilient qualities of its synergistic and differentiated business model. To this end, as the strong performance in 1Q24 points to another record high profitability in 2024, Mytilineos is well on track to meet our FY24 EBITDA estimate of EUR 1.14bn, implying an attractive 6.6x 2024e EV/EBITDA multiple. Additionally, the company’s target to become the Greek representative in London’s FTSE 100 index, (Mytilineos is the first Greek Company ever to set such an ambitious target), in our view will provide further support to the stock. That said, we reiterate our Buy recommendation stock with the TP at EUR 49.0/share.
Mytilineos 1Q24 Results Review
|
EUR m |
1Q23 |
1Q24a |
Y-o-Y change |
Optima |
Actual vs. Optima |
|
Group Revenues |
1,358 |
1,143 |
-16% |
1,108 |
3% |
|
– Energy EBITDA |
150 |
184 |
23% |
180 |
2% |
|
– Metallurgy EBITDA |
74 |
70 |
-5% |
66.8 |
5% |
|
– Construction/Concessions |
5 |
3 |
-40% |
3 |
– |
|
Group EBITDA |
225 |
252 |
12% |
250 |
+1% |
|
Net Income |
143 |
158 |
10% |
150 |
5% |
Source: Optima bank Research, Mytilineos
Below is an analysis per division for 1Q24:
· Energy: The unit registered drop in revenue (-16% y-o-y to EUR 1,143m) due to the normalization of energy prices, while EBITDA expanded by +23% YoY to EUR 184m), benefited from the expanded RES activity and to lesser extent by the increased electricity output, aided by the contribution of the new 826MW plant (Thermal generation volumes up by up by 120% y-o-y to 2TWh). With respect to Renewables, total capacity of the operational and mature global portfolio is now c.4.8 GW, while including projects in Early and Middle stages of development, with a capacity of c.5.7 GW, MYTILINEOS’ global portfolio now approaches 10 GW, at the end of 1Q24. Addtionally, Mytilineos’ retail electricity and Nat Gas supply business continues to grow, with Protergia’s market share in March standing at 17.45 (from 10.3% in 1Q23). Finally, with regards to M Power projects sub sector, the backlog of contracted projects in 1Q24-end amounted to EUR 1.4bn, while including projects at an advanced stage of contracting, total backlog amounts to EUR 1.7bn, of which 10% refer to Greek projects and 45% in the United Kingdom, 24% in Poland, an activity which is expected to record significant growth.
· Metals: Aluminium prices and premia continued to decline in 1Q24 (LME down to 2,241$/t, from 2,438$/t in 1Q23 and Premia also down to $400/t from $600/t in 1Q23). Due to the weaker pricing environment in the quarter, Mytilineos reported Metals sales down by 9% y-o-y to 205m, expanding however the EBITDA margin to 34.3% (from 32.7% in 1Q23), with EBITDA down by 5% y-o-y to EUR 70m, supported by its hedging policy,
· Construction/concessions): Regarding the construction activity, segmental EBITDA contribution in 1Q24 amounted to EUR 3m compared to EUR 5m in 1Q23, due to a transitional phase of completion and delivery of certain ongoing major projects and the commencement of new projects in an early stage. At the end of 1Q24, the backlog of infrastructure projects in progress exceeds EUR 600 million, while including projects that are in an advanced stage of contracting, it exceeds EUR 1bn. The prospects for the construction industry in Greece are particularly positive, especially for concession and PPP projects, in which the Infrastructure Sector aspires to play a leading role.
OPAP AGM approved dividend of EUR 0.60 per share
The AGM approved among others the dividend distribution of EUR 0.60/share which, after deducting the shares held by the company, will amount to EUR 0.61/share, (DY: 3.75%) and the capital return of EUR 0.25/share (ex-date 25/6). We remind that the stock is trading ex-dividend on Monday 29 April. Additionally, the CEO reportedly (Kathimerini) stated yesterday that OPAP’s performance has been boosted by the efficient implementation of the Fast Forward business strategy with retail and online activities in positive momentum thanks to digitalization and the upgrading of the customer experience. Also commented that Eurojackpot’s performance has been encouraging.
HELLENiQ ENERGY establishes green electricity supply in Cyprus (press)
According to Kathimerini, HELLENiQ ENERGY established an electricity supply company in Cyprus, named “EKO Energy”, which will provide green electricity to industrial and commercial consumers. As a reminder, HE already operates RES capacity of 41MW in Cyprus, and targets to install an additional 45MW.
PPC, DEPA and Kopelouzos to complete the new 840MW CCGT plant in Alexandroupoli in 24 months (press)
According to Businessdaily.gr, the PPC (51%)/DEPA commercial (29%/Kopelouzos (20%) JV which constructs the new 840MW CCGT in Alexandroupoli, will complete the construction of the project in 24 months, at a total cost of EUR 400m.
Athens Water–solid FY23 results, to distribute dividend of 0.10/share with an implied yield of 1.7%
Athens Water reported that FY23 revenues increased by 2.4% YoY to EUR 351.6m (mostly driven by its main activities, water supply and sewerage), EBITDA up by 56% y-o-y to EUR 60.8m, also aided by lower opex by 1.8% y-o-y and net profit at EUR 20.3m vs EUR 5m last year. In 2021, Net Operating Cash inflows for the group in 2021decreased to EUR 38.2m from EUR 93.2m in 2020, driven by the increase in the balance of receivables from customers. Management will propose gross dividend EUR 0.10/share with an implied yield of 1.7%.
Athens Water conference call highlights
During the conference call management stated that the new bill expected to be passed in the next days will allow the company to expand its operations. More specifically, the management stated that EYDAP will be able to carry out activities outside Attica and control companies in related sectors. In addition, management stated that the company will enter into renewable energy production to reduce costs and is exploring possible options, while looking at ways to recycle and reuse water for agricultural and other uses. Another new opportunity management is exploring is the maintenance and the cleaning of storm drains in Attica. Finally, the management stressed that investments in FY24 will reach EUR 81m, while in FY25 investments will reach up to EUR 204 m.
EPSILON NET Ginger Digital BidCo to submit mandatory tender offer
EPSILON NET announced that Ginger Digital BidCo SA in collaboration with General Atlantic Ginger BV, Mr. Ioanni Micho and National Bank of Greece will submit a mandatory tender offer in order to acquire a 37.08% stake and to delist the company from ATHEX. Recall that Mr. Ioannis Michos controls a 55.42% stake and National Bank of Greece a 7.50% stake respectively. The offer price was set at EUR 12.00 per share, at 18.8% premium to the closing price and values the company EUR 650.4m or 32.5x EPS23 and 21.9x EV/EBITDA23.
CENERGY AGM on 31st May
CENERGY will hold an AGM on 28st May, to approve among others the distribution of a EUR 0.08 DPS (ex-date: 25 June, DY: 1.1%).
AVAX FY23 Results out on 29 April amc
AVAX is set to release the FY23 results on Monday, 29 April, after the market close, with a conference call scheduled for May 14.
Viohalco AGM set for 28 May
The company announced that it will hold its Annual General Meeting on Tuesday 28 May to approve among other the distribution of a EUR 0.12/share dividend (dividend yield: c. 2.2%).
Galaxy Cosmos 2023 results out today
The company is set to report 2023 results today.
Ilyda Financial Calendar
The company will publish its FY23 results on Monday 29 April, the AGM will take place on Friday 5 July and the stock will trade ex-dividend on Friday 19 July with the dividend payment set for Wednesday 24 July.
Calendar of Events
Macros
26/04/24 | Building Activity JAN
29/04/24 | Economic Sentiment Indicator APR
30/04/24 | Turnover Index in Retail Trade FEB & Producer Price Index in Industry MAR
01/05/24 | S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI APR (08:00 UTC)
31/05/24 | Fitch – Greek sovereign credit review
Market
14/05/24 | MSCI Quarterly Index review announcement date (Effective date: June 03, 2024)
Results Release
26/04/24 | Kekrops (FY23) (Aft-mkt), Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (FY23), Technical Olympic (FY23) (Aft-mkt), Unibios (FY23)
29/04/24 | GEK TERNA (FY23) (Aft-mkt), Terna Energy (FY23) (Aft-mkt), AVAX (FY23), Athens Airport (1Q24) (bef-mkt), Elastron (FY23), AS Company (FY23), Alpha Real Estate Services (FY23), ILYDA (FY23), Quality & Reliability (FY23)
30/04/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (1Q24), Coca-Cola HBC (1Q24 trading update) (7:00 am BST), Entersoft (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt), Frigoglass (FY23)
01/05/24 | National Bank of Greece (1Q24) (Bef-mkt)
09/05/24 | Titan Cement International (1Q24)
14/05/24 | OTE (1Q24) (bef-mkt)
16/05/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (1Q24), Eurobank Holdings (1Q24), HELLENiQ ENERGY (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)
21/05/24 | Optima bank (1Q24), Fourlis (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)
22/05/24 | ElvalHalcor (1Q24 trading update) (Aft-mkt), QUEST Holdings (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)
23/05/24 | PPC (1Q24) (Aft-mkt), Ideal Holdings (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt)
27/05/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (1Q24)
28/05/24 | Cenergy Holdings (1Q24), Epsilon Net (1Q24 trading update) (Bef-mkt)
29/05/24 | OPAP (1Q24) (Aft-mkt)
31/05/24 | Austriacard Holdings (1Q24), Attica Bank (1Q24)
EGM / AGM
30/04/24 | Aegean Airlines (AGM), PPC (EGM), BriQ Properties (AGM)
09/05/24 | Titan Cement (AGM)
10/05/24 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (AGM)
15/05/24 | Alpha Trust Holding (AGM), Revoil (AGM)
17/05/24 | Trastor REIC (AGM), Entersoft (AGM)
21/05/24 | Coca-Cola HBC (AGM)
22/05/24 | Jumbo (AGM)
23/05/24 | Optima bank (AGM), ElvalHalcor (AGM), Motodynamics (AGM)
28/05/24 | Viohalco (AGM), Cenergy (AGM)
29/05/24 | Attica Group (AGM)
30/05/24 | Intralot (AGM)
31/05/24 | Ellaktor (AGM)
04/06/24 | Mytilineos (AGM)
06/06/24 | Ideal Holdings (AGM)
10/06/24 | Galaxy Cosmos Mezz Plc (AGM)
13/06/24 | Hellenic Exchanges (AGM), Quest Holdings (AGM)
14/06/24 | Trade Estates (AGM)
17/06/24 | Loulis Food (AGM)
19/06/24 | Motor Oil (AGM), Viokarpet (AGM)
20/06/24 | Terna Energy (AGM), AS Company (AGM), Space Hellas (AGM)
21/06/24 | Fourlis (AGM)
25/06/24 | GEK TERNA (AGM)
27/06/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (AGM), PPC (AGM), LAMDA Development (AGM), Elastron (AGM)
28/06/24 | Piraeus Financial Holdings (AGM), OTE (AGM), Epsilon Net (AGM)
02/07/24 | Intrakat (AGM)
03/07/24 | ADMIE Holding (AGM)
04/07/24 | Alumil (AGM)
05/07/24 | ILYDA (AGM)
09/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings (AGM), KRI-KRI (AGM)
10/07/24 | Piraeus Port (AGM), Attica Bank (AGM)
11/07/24 | EYDAP (AGM)
23/07/24 | Eurobank Holdings (AGM)
25/07/24 | Alpha Services and Holdings (AGM)
Ex-Dividend
29/04/24 | OPAP (remaining EUR 0.60)
02/05/24 | Sarantis (EUR 0.224381)
08/05/24 | BriQ Properties
13/05/24 | Alpha Trust Andromeda (EUR 0.30)
14/05/24 | Thessaloniki Port Authority (EUR 1.30)
20/05/24 | Aegean Airlines (EUR 0.75), Alpha Trust Holding (EUR 0.55), Revoil (EUR 0.048)
21/05/24 | Athens Airport (EUR 0.33)
05/06/24 | Attica Group (EUR 0.07)
19/06/24 | Trade Estates
25/06/24 | Titan Cement (EUR 0.85), Hellenic Exchanges (EUR 0.24), ElvalHalcor (EUR 0.04), Viohalco (EUR 0.12), Cenergy (EUR 0.08), Quest Holdings (EUR 0.22)
26/06/24 | Motor Oil (rem. EUR 1.40), Mytilineos (EUR 1.50), Fourlis (EUR 0.12)
01/07/24 | Loulis Food
04/07/24 | OTE (EUR 0.71)
05/07/24 | Trastor REIC
10/07/24 | HELLENiQ ENERGY (rem. EUR 0.60), Jumbo (EUR 1.00), AS Company
16/07/24 | Austriacard Holdings, Epsilon Net
22/07/24 | PPC, EYDAP (EUR 0.10), Space Hellas
29/07/24 | Piraeus Port (EUR 1.34)
22/08/24 | KRI-KRI (EUR 0.35)
02/09/24 | ADMIE Holding
Ex-Capital Return
25/06/24 | OPAP (EUR 0.25)
25/07/24 | Ideal Holdings
28/08/24 | GEK TERNA
ATHEX Companies Presentations (Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association)
26/04/24 | Thrace Plastics (11:00 Athens time, videoconference)
30/04/24 | Profile Software (09:30)
|
Research Department Τ: 210 8173 383 F: 210 3279 287 E: [email protected] 32 Aigialeias & Paradissou str., 15125, Maroussi optimabank.gr |
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